AEX Technical view

I expect we haven't seen all downside for stockmarkets. The AEX has finished an intermediate uptrend from 200 to 360. Since that high we have seen the first leg lower delivering a lower low at 301 and the first countertrend (2) has just finished at 331. Expect the intermediate downtrend to resume its path lower (3,4 and 5) for a final target at 280. This is the 50% retracementlevel of the 200-360 upmove. Given the weak economic outlook for the developed world a 50% retracement after such a strong upmove looks quite likely to me.

EUR/USD Technical view

After having broken longterm support at 1.2700 around May 10th, the pair has found initial support only at the steep downtrending channel bottom at 1.2150. Priceaction since then has been merely sideways to a little higher, and for the very nearterm that might continue with upside capped at 1.2710. I expect downtrend to resume within next week for a move to support at 1.1850. This is the final stage of the major move lower seen since November last year from 1.5150 high. For 2H10 I expect strong support at 1.1850 to hold and push the pair back higher towards 1.2800 before the next attempt lower will start.

USD/JPY Technical view

In March of this year usd/jpy broke higher out of the multiyear downtrend. Resistance at the time was at 91.15, and a subsequent move to 95.00 was seen. This week the pair has retested the former longterm resistance, now acting as support at 89.20. Outlook for the next three months is for a strong move higher, with main resistance coming in at 91.00, 92.15 and 95.10 for a final target of 98.00. There is a minor risk we might see a small dip lower first to 88.80 before higher, nearterm support is at 89.60.

Christmas in Breukelen

It's raining cats and dogs, exactly the right atmosphere for me to show you some Christmas pictures. EUR/GBP almost reached parity over the last month, but Christmas in Holland can still not match Christmas in London.

A day in the life of a SocGen Banker

This series is the result of a short stay in Paris when I was inspired by the frantic pace of commuting Parisiens. I imagined Jerome Kerviel on his way to the office, dazed by the knowledge of a staggering 5 billion euro loss. One could buy a whole bank for that amount nowadays.